March Madness 2026 — Predictions launch soon
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Training data from 2002 Backtested 2018–2025 80.95% moneyline accuracy (74.04% overall)
0
Years of Training Data
0
Moneyline Accuracy (2025 primary, 74.04% overall)
+25.24%
2025 ML ROI (20.47% overall)
0
ML Models

Built for bracket intelligence

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Ensemble

5-Model Ensemble

Predictions generated by XGBoost, Random Forest, PyTorch neural network, KenPom analytic model, and a meta-learner stacking their outputs. Each model trained on 200+ features per matchup.

Simulate

Monte Carlo Bracket Sim

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per bracket chart every plausible path to the championship. Champion probabilities, upset likelihoods, and round-by-round advancement odds.

Data

24 Years of NCAA Data

Trained on KenPom efficiency ratings, strength of schedule, tempo, and luck metrics from every season since 2002. Backtested on 443 tournament games from 2018–2025.

Backtest results

Full methodology →
Moneyline
80.95%
2025 win rate · 63 bets (74.04% overall · 443 bets)
+25.24% ROI · $1,590 (overall: +20.47% · $9,068.62)
Spread
63.49%
2025 win rate · 63 bets (62.30% overall · 443 bets)
+21.21% ROI · $1,470 (overall: +18.94% · $9,230)
Over / Under
57.79%
Overall win rate · 443 bets (2025: 57.14% · 63 bets)
+10.32% ROI · $5,030 (2025: +9.09% · $630)
Favorites 384 bets
75.3%
Correct289
Incorrect95
Return+$6,633.71
ROI+17.28%
289 W95 L
Underdogs 59 bets
66.1%
Correct39
Incorrect20
Return+$2,434.91
ROI+41.27%
39 W20 L
Favorites 251 bets
60.6%
Correct152
Incorrect99
Return+$4,310
ROI+15.61%
152 W99 L
Underdogs 192 bets
64.6%
Correct124
Incorrect68
Return+$4,920
ROI+23.30%
124 W68 L
Over 250 bets
51.2%
Correct128
Incorrect122
Return-$620
ROI-2.25%
128 W122 L
Under 193 bets
66.3%
Correct128
Incorrect65
Return+$5,650
ROI+26.61%
128 W65 L

"Trained on 24 years of NCAA data. Backtested on every tournament game since 2018. Ready for March 2026."

BallGPT — Training data from 2002 · Backtest results from 2018–2025 · 443 games verified